DOJ Launches Probe into Former Rep. George Santos for Alleged Insider Trading on Prediction Market Kalshi

Disgraced Ex-Congressman Accused of Profiting Tens of Thousands by Betting Against His Own State of the Union Appearance

Washington, D.C. — June 3, 2026 — The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have opened investigations into former New York Rep. George Santos over suspicious trading activity on the prediction market platform Kalshi, sources familiar with the matter told multiple outlets. The probe centers on bets Santos allegedly placed regarding his own attendance at President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address on February 24, 2026.

Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction marketplace, detected the unusual activity, identified the account as belonging to Santos, froze it, and referred the case to federal authorities. Both the DOJ and CFTC subsequently launched investigations, according to people with knowledge of the platform’s internal review.

Timeline of Alleged Activity:

• February 23, 2026: Santos posted a video on X (formerly Twitter) announcing he would attend the address “in the gallery,” boosting the “Yes” odds on Kalshi’s market to around 75% and attracting millions in wagers from other users.

  
  

• February 24, 2026 (during the speech): Santos did not appear. Instead, he posted from an airport: “Watching SOTU from an airport tv was not part of the plan! FML.” The market odds collapsed as traders reacted to his absence.

  
  

• Sources say Santos had placed significant bets on the “No” outcome (that he would not attend) prior to the event, reportedly profiting tens of thousands of dollars from the price swing.

  
  

Kalshi’s detection of this pattern—public statements inflating odds followed by contradictory action and profitable bets—triggered the referral. Prediction markets like Kalshi treat such non-public information about one’s own actions as potential insider trading under federal rules.

Santos told NPR he was unaware of any investigation and declined to confirm or deny having a Kalshi account, responding coyly: “I’m not saying yes, I’m not saying no.” He has not been charged, and the investigations remain in early stages.

Background on Santos: This latest scrutiny comes after Santos’ tumultuous tenure. Expelled from Congress in 2023, he faced federal fraud charges, pleaded guilty, and was sentenced to more than seven years in prison in 2025. President Trump commuted his sentence, leading to his release months before the alleged Kalshi activity.

The case highlights growing regulatory attention to prediction markets, which have exploded in popularity for events ranging from elections to celebrity appearances. Kalshi and similar platforms operate under CFTC oversight, with rules against manipulation and insider advantages.

As of June 3, 2026, neither the DOJ nor CFTC has issued public statements on the Santos probe. The former congressman has not faced new charges related to this matter.This remains a developing story. 17GEN4 News will provide updates as federal authorities release more information.

DOJ Probes George Santos for Kalshi Insider Trading: Ex-Congressman Bet Against Own SOTU Appearance, Profited Tens of Thousands

Breaking: Former Rep. George Santos under DOJ and CFTC investigation for alleged insider trading on prediction platform Kalshi. Suspicious bets on his State of the Union attendance netted big profits after public statements. Details on the February scandal and latest developments. (June 3, 2026)

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