Trump Persuading the Saudi Crown Prince to Normalize Ties with Israel

Washington, D.C. – November 16, 2025  President Donald Trump is doubling down on his signature Middle East diplomacy project, the Abraham Accords, with an aggressive bid to lure Saudi Arabia into formal ties with Israel. But as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman prepares for a high-stakes White House visit on Tuesday, administration insiders and regional experts warn of formidable obstacles that could derail the president's ambitions.

Trump has been vocal about his expectations, telling reporters aboard Air Force One last Friday that he hopes Saudi Arabia will "be going into the Abraham Accords very shortly." The accords, which Trump brokered during his first term, normalized relations between Israel and four Arab nations – the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco – bypassing the long-stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Extending the pact to Riyadh, home to Islam's holiest sites, would represent a diplomatic crown jewel, potentially reshaping alliances against shared threats like Iran.

Yet, beneath the pomp of the upcoming summit – complete with a state dinner and multibillion-dollar investment pledges – lie profound headwinds. Saudi Arabia has repeatedly conditioned any normalization on concrete progress toward Palestinian statehood, a demand Trump has downplayed but which Riyadh views as non-negotiable. "The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's position on the establishment of a Palestinian state is firm and unwavering," the Saudi Foreign Ministry declared in a February statement, countering Trump's optimistic assertions that the kingdom had softened its stance.

The fragile Gaza ceasefire, holding since last month's U.S.-brokered summit in Egypt, has only amplified Riyadh's resolve. While Trump credits his administration with ending the war – a claim echoed in a private October phone call with bin Salman where he urged swift normalization – Saudi leaders argue that Israel's ongoing settlement expansions and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's rejection of a two-state solution block any viable path forward. Netanyahu, a staunch opponent of Palestinian sovereignty, has assigned his confidant Ron Dermer to quietly advance talks, but even Dermer has faced pushback from U.S. officials urging a "bigger picture" focus on Saudi incentives.

Adding friction, Israel is leveraging the talks to protect its military edge. Jerusalem does not oppose a proposed U.S. sale of F-35 stealth fighter jets to Saudi Arabia – the first such deal in the region beyond Israel – but insists it be conditioned on normalization. "The Saudis need to change their attitude during this visit," one Israeli official told Axios. "It is important that the Trump-MBS meeting will lead to a clear roadmap towards normalization." Riyadh, meanwhile, is prioritizing a broader U.S.-Saudi defense pact and arms packages, including the F-35s, over the politically charged Israel file. Experts note that Saudi Arabia already cooperates covertly with Israel on security matters, diminishing the urgency for overt ties without Palestinian concessions.

Congressional hurdles loom large as well. Any formal defense agreement must navigate U.S. law mandating Israel's qualitative military superiority, with lawmakers likely to link approvals to normalization progress. "Even if Trump is agreeable, Congress will have its own considerations," said Kristian Alexander, a senior fellow at the Rabdan Security and Defence Institute. Bin Salman's visit, his first to Washington since the 2018 Khashoggi murder scandal, underscores the kingdom's leverage: Riyadh has hinted at turning to Beijing for arms if U.S. demands prove too steep.

On social media, the debate rages. Pro-Palestinian voices hailed Saudi firmness as a bulwark against "erasure" of the Palestinian cause, with one user posting, "MBS has more leverage than we think" in response to arms sale discussions.

Israeli outlets expressed cautious optimism for a "partial normalization" framework, while analysts warned that Trump's "desperation" for a win could lead to lopsided concessions.

Trump's broader Middle East vision – weakened Iranian proxies, U.S. strikes on Tehran's nuclear sites, and massive Saudi investments in American AI and energy – has created openings, his advisers argue. But as one anonymous U.S. official put it, "the gaps between the Saudis and Israelis remain wide." With bin Salman arriving amid whispers of a "historic package deal" on defense but little on diplomacy, the summit risks becoming a test of Trump's deal-making prowess – or a reminder that some regional fault lines run too deep for even the art of the deal to bridge.

The Abraham Accords hang in the balance, a tantalizing prospect overshadowed by the unresolved Palestinian question. As Trump hosts the crown prince, the world watches: Will Riyadh bend, or will the headwinds prove too fierce? 17GEN4.com