Tight Race in Poland's Presidential Election: Trzaskowski and Nawrocki Both Claim Victory

WARSAW, Poland — June 1, 2025 — In a dramatic and tightly contested presidential election, both Rafał Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of Warsaw and candidate of the centrist Civic Platform (PO), and Karol Nawrocki, the conservative historian backed by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, have claimed victory following the second round of Poland's presidential runoff. Exit polls suggest an extraordinarily close race, with results too tight to definitively call a winner as of Sunday evening, intensifying the stakes for Poland's political future.

Preliminary exit polls conducted by Ipsos for TVP, TVN, and Polsat projected Trzaskowski edging out Nawrocki with 50.3% of the vote to Nawrocki's 49.7%, a margin well within the statistical error range. Voter turnout was reported at a robust 72.8%, reflecting the high stakes and deep polarization in this pivotal election. However, both candidates swiftly declared victory, setting the stage for potential disputes as official results from the National Electoral Commission (PKW) are awaited.

Trzaskowski, addressing a jubilant crowd in Sandomierz, proclaimed, "We’re going to win," emphasizing his vision for a "normal Poland, not a radical Poland." The 53-year-old mayor, a close ally of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, campaigned on a pro-European platform, promising to restore the rule of law, advance social reforms like abortion rights and LGBTQ+ inclusion, and strengthen Poland's ties with the European Union and NATO. His supporters see him as a key to unblocking Tusk's legislative agenda, which has been stalled by the vetoes of outgoing PiS-aligned President Andrzej Duda.

Meanwhile, Nawrocki, 42, rallied supporters in Gdansk, declaring himself "full of energy and enthusiasm on the way to victory." Backed by the populist Law and Justice party, the head of the Institute of National Remembrance has positioned himself as a defender of traditional, conservative values, pledging to prioritize Poland's relationship with the United States over the EU, reduce taxes, tighten immigration policies, and resist EU initiatives like the Green Deal. His campaign gained a boost from an endorsement by U.S. President Donald Trump, with whom Nawrocki met in early May, and a strong showing from far-right voters in the first round on May 18, where he secured 29.54% to Trzaskowski's 31.36%.

The razor-thin margin underscores the deep ideological divide in Poland, a key NATO and EU member bordering war-torn Ukraine. The presidency, while largely ceremonial, holds significant veto power over legislation, making the outcome critical for Tusk's government. A Trzaskowski win could pave the way for reforms to roll back PiS-era judicial changes, while a Nawrocki victory would likely perpetuate the obstruction faced by the current coalition.

Political analyst Aleks Szczerbiak from the University of Sussex cautioned that the close result could hinge on turnout and the mobilization of voters who backed far-right candidates Sławomir Mentzen (14.8%) and Grzegorz Braun (6.3%) in the first round. "It’s wide open and will be very close," Szczerbiak noted, highlighting the challenge for Trzaskowski to rally left-wing and centrist voters while Nawrocki courts the conservative base.

As both camps await official results, expected later this week from the PKW, tensions run high. Nawrocki's campaign has faced scrutiny over past controversies, including allegations of involvement in a 2009 football hooligan brawl and questions about an apartment deal with an elderly pensioner, which he donated to charity amid backlash. Trzaskowski, meanwhile, has grappled with voter frustration over Tusk's coalition failing to deliver on 2023 campaign promises, such as loosening abortion laws and holding PiS officials accountable.

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