Tensions Soar Between India and Pakistan Following Deadly Kashmir Attack

New Delhi/Islamabad, May 6, 2025 – The volatile relationship between nuclear-armed neighbors India and Pakistan has reached a critical juncture following a militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir on April 22, 2025, which killed 26 people, mostly tourists. The assault in Pahalgam, described as the deadliest civilian attack in the region since 2000, has triggered a cascade of diplomatic, military, and economic retaliations, raising fears of a broader conflict.

The attack, initially claimed and later disavowed by The Resistance Front (TRF), a group India links to Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, prompted New Delhi to accuse Islamabad of supporting cross-border terrorism. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to pursue the perpetrators “to the ends of the earth,” signaling a robust response. On April 23, India announced punitive measures, including the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, a 1960 agreement governing shared river resources, and the closure of the Attari-Wagah border crossing. Visa services for Pakistani nationals were canceled, and diplomatic ties were downgraded, with both nations expelling diplomats and recalling citizens.

Pakistan denied involvement in the attack and condemned terrorism, with Information Minister Attaullah Tarar claiming on April 30 that Islamabad had “credible intelligence” of an imminent Indian military strike within 24-36 hours. Pakistan warned that any aggression would be met with a “decisive response.” The Pakistani military conducted missile tests on May 4 and 5, citing operational readiness, while India reported activating air defense units along the border.

Military tensions have escalated along the Line of Control (LoC), the de-facto border in Kashmir. Since April 24, both sides have engaged in near-daily exchanges of small-arms fire, with Pakistan reporting the downing of two Indian drones and India alleging unprovoked firing by Pakistani forces for 11 consecutive nights. On May 6, India launched “Operation Sindoor,” striking nine sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, which New Delhi described as “terrorist infrastructure.” Pakistan condemned the strikes as a “cowardly attack,” reporting hits in Kotli, Bahawalpur, and Muzaffarabad.

The international community has urged restraint. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio held talks with Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, pressing for de-escalation and cooperation in investigating the attack. The European Union, China, and UN Secretary-General António Guterres echoed calls for dialogue, with Guterres stating, “A military solution is no solution.” The UN Security Council convened closed consultations on May 5 to address the crisis, with some members supporting an independent investigation.

Diplomatic and economic measures have intensified the standoff. India banned all imports from Pakistan on May 2, citing national security, and both nations have closed their airspace to each other’s airlines. Pakistan warned that any attempt to divert Indus River waters would be considered an “act of war,” highlighting the treaty’s suspension as a flashpoint.

Analysts warn of the risks of escalation. “The threshold for conflict has shifted since 2019,” said Ajay Bisaria, India’s former high commissioner to Pakistan, noting parallels with the 2019 Balakot airstrikes following a similar attack. The Carnegie Endowment’s Milan Vaishnav emphasized the “enormous pressure” on Modi to respond militarily, while the International Crisis Group’s Praveen Donthi highlighted the attack’s visceral impact on India. Both nations’ nuclear capabilities cast a shadow over the crisis, with Pakistan’s ambassador to Moscow, Khalid Jamali, warning of a “full spectrum” response, including nuclear options, in the event of war.

As India conducts civil defense drills and Pakistan shutters religious schools near the LoC, the region braces for further developments. The UN Security Council’s ongoing discussions and diplomatic interventions by global powers remain critical to averting a deeper conflict.

Sources: The New York Times, CNN, Reuters, NPR, The Hindu, Al Jazeera

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